2022 House of Delegates Races Breakdown

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These projections are more subjective than the Maryland Senate and Congressional races that I released earlier this month. These projections are mostly based on primary turnout, but I did take into account issues such of incumbency (an open seat is easier to win than seat held by an incumbent) and the strength of a campaign.

For example, I believe both Democratic seats in District 30 A are winnable for the GOP but it appears Republican only have one strong candidate. That is why one seat is listed as toss-up and the other is “Slight Democrat”

But most of these projections are based on primary turnout. To review:

I took all of the votes each Democrat candidate (or candidates and combined the total) and compared that to the amount of votes each Republican candidate or candidates received.

In most districts, there are more registered Democratic voters than Republicans, but more Democrats are likely to switch over to vote Republican.

Here is a breakdown on how the chart was created:

Strong Republican– Republican primary candidates received double the amount of votes of Democratic candidates

Steady Republican– Republican candidates received significant more votes than Democrats but it didn’t double the votes.

Slight Republican– Republican candidates in their primary have a few hundred more or a few hundred votes less than the all the Democratic votes in their primary.

Toss Up. The Democratic candidates had more votes than the Republican candidates, but the total didn’t double.

Slight Democrat– The number of votes casted for Democrat candidates doubled the number of votes casted for Republican candidates, but the amount did not triple.

Steady Democrat- The number of votes casted for Democrat candidates tripled the number of votes casted for Republican candidates, but the amount did not quadruple.

Strong Democrat– All Democratic candidates received at least four times and beyond the number of primary votes as all the Republican candidates in a Senatorial District.

WHAT I LEARNED
District 8
The northeast Baltimore County district has been gerrymandered for Democrats. It currently has two Democrats (Harry Bhandari and Carl Jackson) to one Republican Joe Boteler.
He was gerrymandered out of the district and lost in the new District 7A primary.
His seat is now open and Bhandari and Jackson are out of toss-up and are in the “Slight Democrat” column. Hopefully Republicans Kathi Smero, Glen Geelhaar or Tim Neubauer can keep Boteler’s seat and perhaps take Bhandari and/or Jackson’s seats.

District 29B
Former Delegate Deb Rey is looking to get her old seat in a rematch with Democrat Brian Crosby. I have three current Democratic seats in the “Slight Republican” in southern Maryland. Crosby is the only one that is not a open seat. So would be shocked if Rey doesn’t win.

District 30A
Even when the late great Speaker Michael Busch held this seat, he shared with Republicans. This is a moderate district. Busch and Democrat Lisa Cain won these two seats in 2018. Busch died in 2019 and Cain stepped down in 2020. Current Delegates Sherry Henson and Dana Jones were appointed and are leftist for District 30A.
Republican challenger Doug Rathell has ran at great campaign and has the ability to take a seat in the Annapolis area. The other Republican is Rob Seyfferth. He hasn’t ran much of a campaign but that second seat is available if he wants it.

District 32
With all the gerrymandering going in District 33, District 32 in Anne Arundel County is more competitive for Republicans. Three incumbents are running but Michelle Speakman looks like she can pick up a seat. Michael Jette and Monica Smearman also have a shot at other two seats.

District 33 Now Split into Three
Democrat Heather Bagnell upset Tony McConkey in 2018 to turn one of the three Republican seats in District 33. To help Bagnell keep her seat, this district was drawn into three single member districts in Anne Arundel County.

District 33A
This is technically a Republican seat as it is currently held by Republican Del. Rachael Munoz and one of the seats in District 31 is technically Democratic since it is held by current Del. Democrat Ned Carey (District 31), who is not seeking reelection.
With redistricting, Munoz is now in a “Steady Republican” District 31 and District 33A is now “slight Democrat”. Republican Kim Mills is trying to take this open seat away from Democrat Andrew Pruski.

District 33B
This District appears Republicans should hold on to the seat but it is still only “Slight Republican”. GOP nominee Stuart Schmidt is not an incumbent, he should hold onto this seat.

District 33C
Kerry Gillespie is trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Del
Heather Bagnell in District 33C. This sub District might more winnable for Republicans than District 33A.

District 34A
Former Del. Glen Glass is in position to get his old seat back since it is open in Harford County. Republican Teresa Walter also has a chance to take Democratic Del. Steve Johnson’s seat in this two-member district. It is listed as “50-50”.

District 37A
On the paper, District 37A could be a toss-up. Democratic incumbent Sheree Sample-Hughes didn’t double her Republican challenger Donna Bradshaw’s vote total, which usually put a race as a toss-up on the Eastern Shore.
Now perhaps this is a District where a third of Democrats don’t vote Republican in the general. I have this as “Slight Democrat” since Sample-Hughes is Speaker pro tempore with deep pockets and Bradshaw is an inexperienced newcomer. However; Andy Harris transferred over $5,000 to Bradshaw. This could be a race to watch.

District 42B
Michelle Guyton’s seat is in play. Former Councilman Todd Huff is going after her seat. Guyton is a strong member of Democratic party and Huff has some baggage but he can flip this seat red in northern Baltimore County.

District 44B
Could this be the year that Republicans finally pick up a seat in western Baltimore County? Republicans have won the Baltimore County portion of the old District 12 but lost in the Howard County portion of the district. District 44B is a single member district that covers most of those same Baltimore County spots as District 12.
Joe Hooe is the known Republican running and he is challenging Democrat Eric Ebersole. This will still be tough for Hooe. It is listed as “Slight Democrat” but it might be closer to “Steady Democrat” than “50/50”