Breakdown of Maryland Congressional Races

As I mentioned in the Maryland Senate Senate races these projections are based solely on primary turnout. I took all of the votes each Democrat candidate (or candidates and combined the total) and compared that to the amount of votes each Republican candidate or candidates received.

In most districts, there are more registered Democratic voters than Republicans but more Democrats are likely switch over to vote Republican.

Here is a breakdown of how chart was created:

Solid Republican- Republican primary candidates received double the amount of votes of the Democratic candidates.

Steady Republican- Republican candidates received significant more votes than Democrats but didn’t double the votes.

Slight Republican- Republican candidates in their primary have a few thousand more or a few thousand votes less than the all the Democratic votes in their primary.

Toss Up. The Democratic candidates had more votes than the Republican candidates but the total didn’t double.

Slight Democrat- The number of votes casted for Democrat candidates doubled the amount of votes casted for Republican candidates, but the amount did not triple.

Steady Democrat- The number of votes casted for Democrat candidates tripled the amount of votes casted for Republican candidates, but the amount did not quadruple.

Solid Democrat- All Democratic candidates received at least four times and beyond the amount of primary votes as all the Republican candidates in a Senatorial District.

Again this chart is based on raw numbers. It doesn’t take into account incumbency, campaign finance reports and doesn’t factor areas that might have more conservative/liberal Democrats.

What I learned
Remember this map is nowhere near as gerrymandered as the original Democratic map after the courts throw out that map. District 1 is safe and District 6 should go back to the Republicans. I wrote in the spring on how District 2 and District 3 should be competitive and possibly winnable for Republicans and the primary turnout proves that is true.

District 1
Congressman Andy Harris had nearly 68,000 votes which was more than the combined total of the two Democrats around 50,000.
Since Harris didn’t double, I wont call it “Strong Republican”, this is “Steady Republican”.

District 2
I want to be unbiased as possible and don’t want to give any Republicans any false but this race is really is on the borderline between “Toss-up” and “Slight Democrat”. Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger and his Democratic opponents (83,311 votes) just barely doubled Nicolee Ambrose and her Republican opponents vote total (37,601). It is “Slight Democrat” but it is much closer to “toss-up” than going to “Steady Democrat”

Again these numbers based on primary turnout so other factors could shift the race to a complete toss-up.

District 3
The biggest shocker is that District 3 is a toss up. The number of votes casted from John Sarbanes and the Democrats (around 75,000) did not double Yuripzy Morgan and her Republican opponents (nearly 39,000).

Now I am not sure of the makeup of this District. In District 2 Baltimore County and Carroll, one third of Democrats usually vote red. There could be pockets of Democratic areas where only 20 to 25 percent of Democrats vote Republican. Either way, I am amazed that Democratic turnout didn’t double GOP turnout in D3.

District 6
The new Western Maryland map not only puts this District in play for Republicans but primary turnout data indicates that that District 6 is “Slight Republican”.

Republican nominee Neil Parrott and his GOP opponents accounted for around 56,000 votes compared to around 59,000 votes to Democrats. That is a 52 to 48 Democrat to Republican ratio on primary turnout and enough to shift race to the Republicans.

What do you think? Send thoughts or Republican news to news@redfreestate.com

Also check out the breakdown of Maryland Senate Races