MD GOP Prediction- 17 State Senate; 51 Delegates & 3 Congressional Seats
Here are my finally predictions for the 2022 Congressional, State Senate and House of Delegates races. No more “toss-up or “50-50” column. These charts are predicting where those “50/50” races will end.
Congress
| STRONG REPUBLICAN | STEADY REPUBLICAN | SLIGHT REPUBLICAN | SLIGHT DEMOCRAT | STEADY DEMOCRAT | STRONG DEMOCRAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris R-1 | Trone D-6 (Parrott) | Ruppersberger D-2 (Ambrose) | Open D-4 | ||
| Sarbanes D-3 (Morgan) | Hoyer D-5 | ||||
| Mfume D-7 | |||||
| Raskin D-8 |
I think Neil Parrot easily takes David Throne’s seat in CD-6. If he doesn’t it won’t be a red wave and a long night statewide for Republicans. I think Nicolee Ambrose pushes Dutch Ruppersberger to the edge but falls short.
It is hard to believe that Republicans will have a big night nationally but not locally. Something unexpected is bounded to happen. I am predicting a Yuripzy Morgan upset over Congressman John Sarbanes in CD-3. As I mentioned, primary turnout was not overwhelming for Democrats in CD-3 and I think Morgan shocks the world with an upset tonight.
State Senate
| STRONG R (70%+) | STEADY R (60-69%) | SLIGHT R (51-59%) | SLIGHT D (51-59%) | STEADY D (60-69%) | STRONG D (70%+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-R-1 | Corderman-R-2 | Open R-33 (Saab-R) | Klausmeier D-8 (re-elected) | Open D-3 | Open D-10 |
| Open-R-5 | Open-R-4 | Hester D-9 (Novotny-R) | Jackson D-27 (re-elected) | Lam D-12 | Hettleman D-11 |
| Jennings-R-7 | Salling R-6 | Elfreth D-30 (MacDonald-R | Beidle D-32 (re-elected) | Guzzone D-13 | |
| Bailey R-29 | Open R-34 | Zucker D-14 | |||
| Simonaire R-31 | Open R-37 | Feldman D-15 | |||
| Gallion R-35 | Carozza R-38 | Lee D-16 | |||
| Hershey R-36 | Kegan D-17 | ||||
| West R-42 | Waldstricher D-18 | ||||
| Kramer D-19 | |||||
| Smith D-20 | |||||
| Rosapepe D-21 | |||||
| Pinsky D-22 | |||||
| Watson D-23 | |||||
| Benson D-24 | |||||
| Griffth D-25 | |||||
| Open D-26 | |||||
| Ellis D-28 | |||||
| King D-39 | |||||
| Hayes D-40 | |||||
| Carter D-41 | |||||
| Washington D-43 | |||||
| Sydnor D-44 | |||||
| McCray D-45 | |||||
| Ferguson D-46 | |||||
| Augustine D-47 | |||||
I think the GOP picks up two seats in Maryland Senate. Reid Novotny will bring District 9 back home for Republicans and Stacie MacDonald will upset Sarah Elfreth in District 30. I think Democratic senators Pam Beidle (District 32) and Kathy Klausmeier (District 8) will be too strong to beat.
House of Delegates
| STRONG R (Over 70%) | STEADY R (60-69%) | SLIGHT R (51-59%) | SLIGHT D (51-59%) | STEADY D (60-69%) | STRONG D (Over 70%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District 1A (Open)-R | District 2B (Thiam)-R | District 8 (open)-R | District 8 ( Jackson)-D | District 3 (Open)-D, | District 3 (Kerr)-D |
| District 1B (Buckel)-R | District 4 (3)-R | District 9A (open)-R | District 8 (Bhandari-D | District 3 (Open)-D | District 10 (3)-D |
| District 1C (open)-R | District 9a (Kittleman)-R | District 12B (open)-D | District 9B (Watson)-D | District 27 (Davis)-D | District 11A (open)-D |
| District 2A (2)-R | District 29C (open)-R | District 29B (Crosby)-D | District 30A (Henson)-D | District 11B (2)-D | |
| District 5 (3)-R | District 30B (Howard) -R | District 30a (D.Jones)-D | District 32 (Bartlett)-D | District 12A (2)-D | |
| District 6 (3)-R | District 31 (Chisholm)-R | District 33-A (Open)-D (Old District 31A) | District 32 (Chang)-D | District 13,14,15,16,17,18,19,-D | |
| District 7A (2)-R | District 31 (Munoz) (old District 33) | District 33B (Open)-R | District 32 (Rogers)-D | District 20,21,22, 23, 24, 25 26-D | |
| District 7B (Arikan) -R | District 34B (McComas) -R | District 33-C (Bagnall) | District 37A (Sample-Hughes)-D | District 27A-D | |
| District 27C (Fisher) -R | District 38A (Otto)-R | District 34A (Open)-D | District 44A (Ebersole)-D | District 27 B-D | |
| District 29A (Morgan)-R | District 42A (Mangione)-R | District 34A (Johnson)-D | District 28 (Wilson)-D | ||
| District 31 (Kipke)-R | District 42B (Guyton)-D | District 28 (Patterson)-D | |||
| District 35A (2)-R | District 39 (3)-D | ||||
| District 35B (Hornberger)-R | District 40 (3) -D | ||||
| District 36 (3)-R | District 41 (3)-D | ||||
| District 37B (2)-R | District 43 A (2)-D | ||||
| District 38-(Anderton)-R | District 43B (2)-D | ||||
| District 38C(Hartman)-R | District 44B (2)-D | ||||
| District 42C (open)-R | District 45,46,47 -D |
The Republicans won 50 seats in 2014 and only won 42 in 2018. I think they will get 51 tonight.
As I mentioned the previous post, I think the two District 34A seats are shifting to Republican. Deb Rey is going to get her seat back in District 29B and Doug Rathell picks up one of the two Democratic seats in District 30A. I think one of the newcomer Republicans in District 8 keep Joe Boteler’s old GOP seat.
I am adding District 42B to the Republican column as I think Todd Huff will defeat Del. Michelle Guyton. The district numbers are shifting towards Huff and the GOP. The same is true for District 33C. Kerry Gillespie will defeat incumbent Del. Heather Bagnell.
At the very last minute, I am shifting Kim Mills (33A) to “Slight Republican for the 50th seat. It won’t easy but she is facing a newcomer Democrat Andrew Pruski who is beatable.
I want to do the same for Lisa Kim (9B) and Donna Brawshaw (27A) as they have been great stories, but I think they fall short to Democrats Watson and Sample-Hughes in their respective districts. It’s hard to beat an incumbent.
The District 32 GOP Team (Kim June for Senate and Michelle Speakman & Monica Smearman) were also fun to watch and will come close but not close enough.
Hopefully I am wrong on a few of these predictions, but we will see.
