New Congressional Map Looks More Favorable to GOP Than Expected
_Map courtesy of Maryland Department of Planning-
Republicans had mixed emotions about the second LRAC Congressional map that was passed by the General Assembly and signed by Gov. Larry Hogan.
The map was not as fair as the Citizen’s Map but less gerrymandered than the original LRAC map, which was struck down by the courts.
On strong Democratic years, the Democrat to Republican Congressional ratio could remain 7-to-1 in Maryland, but things could get interesting in a strong Republican year such as 2022.
It appeared Congressional District 2, which has been held by Democratic Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger for the past 20 years, is now in play.
FiveThirtyEight analyst Nat Silver(who made many errors in the 2016 & 2020 Presidential Elections) has CD-2 at Democrat + 11 after the new map was released. Even the Citizen’s Map still had CD-2 at a comfortable + 18 for Ruppersberger.
Now another source The Cook Political Report has CD-2 at a more competitive level for Republicans at Democrat + 7 for the official map.
The district runs from portions of Carroll County to Eastern Baltimore County. There are six Republicans running in CD-2. Nicolee Ambrose is the favorite to be the GOP nominee.
There might be a similar opportunity for Republicans in Congressional District 3, which is held by Democratic Congressman John Sarbanes.
Sarbanes won by nearly 40 points in 2020, but the new maps appear to be more competitive for Republicans.
Silver has CD-3 now Democrat + 14 and Cook has the map at Democrat + 9. CD-3 runs into northern Anne Arundel County into Howard County.
There are five Republicans running for the nomination in CD-3. Yuripzy Morgan is favored to challenge Sarbanes in November.
Silver now has Congressional District 6 as Republican + 1 against Democratic Congressman David Throne.
This district starts in western Maryland and dips less into Montgomery County. State delegate Neil Parrott is favored to win the GOP nomination in that race.
Overall, Republicans should pick up at least one seat in CD-6 to join Congressman Andy Harris.
With strong GOP candidates in CD-2 and CD-3, less gerrymandered districts and an expected red wave, Republicans could narrow the Congressional Maryland seats down to 5 to 3 and possibly 4 to 4.
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