Early Look at 2026 Maryland State Senate Races

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Here is an early look at 2026 Maryland State races. Gerrymandering has taken out the competitiveness of elections.

Gerrymandering districts were obviously created by Democrats to help Democrats, but many incumbent Republicans also benefit from gerrymandering.

Of the 47 Senate districts, 41 incumbents (or the incumbent party if a senator is not seeking reelection) should easily get reelected and are in the category as Strong (Democrat or Republican).
Many of the 41 probably won’t receive a General Election opponent.

Of the remaining eight races, five are categorized as Steady (Democrat or Republican), which should result in a comfortable win around 60 to 40 percent.

That means there are two Slight Democratic districts [Districts 9 and 33] and one toss up. The bad news for Republicans is they had control of Districts 33 and 34 until 2022 and had District 9 until 2018. The other bad news is that District 4 in the Frederick region is Slight Republican since Sen. Bill Folden only won 57 to 42 in 2022.

District 33 in Anne Arundel County was in the hands of the Republicans when Sen. Ed Reilly retired and District 33 Delegate Sid Saab went after the vacant seat but was upset by Democrat Dawn Giles in 2022. Saab has not announced if he is seeking a rematch with Giles. Since Giles won this district by 11, it went from toss-up to Slight Democrat.

Former Delrgate Christian Miele had a similar journey to Saab where he went after a Senate seat vacated by an outgoing Republican Bob Cassilly and lost to a Democrat [Mary-Dulany James] in Harford County’s District 34. Miele has already announced he is seeking a rematch against Dulany James.

She only won by 50.5 to 49.2 so this race is listed as the only toss-up.

With the current blue wave in 2025 and gerrymandering, the Republican dream of flipping Districts 3, 8 and 32 seem like a fantasy. This election is about trying to get back seats from 2018 and 2022.

Since Sen. Shaneka Henson was appointed to her seat, the GOP might have an outside shot at District 30 (Annapolis area) with a strong candidate and a red wave by next November.

Right now, it doesn’t appear to be much ground to gain in the Senate for the Maryland GOP.